Just 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, despite the fact the victories have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
